A web-based screening model for climate risk to water supply systems in the northeastern United States

The aim of this study is to describe the development and application of a web-based decision support tool (ViRTUE) for performing climate risk evaluations of water supply systems. The tool is designed for small-scale water utilities in the northeastern United States that may lack the resources for detailed climate change risk investigations. Development of this tool demonstrates a relatively new approach to web application development using the Shiny framework for the R programming language to create an interactive environment for stakeholders and water managers to explore climate vulnerabilities. Using a decision-scaling framework, the tool allows the user to perform a climate stress test to evaluate the performance and vulnerability to water supply shortfalls of local reservoir systems over a wide range of potential climate change scenarios using a generic systems model. Probabilities of future climate conditions derived from climate projections then help inform utility operators of impending risk.     

Modelling the propagation of social response during a disease outbreak

Epidemic trajectories and associated social responses vary widely between populations, with severe reactions sometimes observed. When confronted with fatal or novel pathogens, people exhibit a variety of behaviours from anxiety to hoarding of medical supplies, overwhelming medical infrastructure and rioting. We developed a coupled network approach to understanding and predicting social response. We couple the disease spread and panic spread processes and model them through local interactions between agents. The social contagion process depends on the prevalence of the disease, its perceived risk and a global media signal. We verify the model by analysing the spread of disease and social response during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Mexico City and 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome and 2009 H1N1 outbreaks in Hong Kong, accurately predicting population-level behaviour. This kind of empirically validated model is critical to exploring strategies for public health intervention, increasing our ability to anticipate the response to infectious disease outbreaks.     

Social information use and the evolution of unresponsiveness in collective systems

Animal groups in nature often display an enhanced collective information-processing capacity. It has been speculated that natural selection will tune this response to be optimal, ensuring that the group is reactive while also being robust to noise. Here, we show that this is unlikely to be the case. By using a simple model of decision-making in a dynamic environment, we find that when individuals behave rationally and are subject to selection based on their accuracy, optimality of collective decision-making is not attained. Instead, individuals overly rely on social information and evolve to be too readily influenced by their neighbours. This is due to a classic evolutionary conflict between individual and collective interest. The result is a sub-optimal system that is poised on the cusp of total unresponsiveness. Individuals in the evolved group exhibit delayed reactions to changes in the environment, before responding with rapid, socially reinforced transitions, reminiscent of familiar human and animal social systems (markets, stampedes, fashions, etc.). Our results demonstrate that behaviour of this type may not be pathological, but instead could represent an evolutionary attractor for such collective systems.     

偶联反应器格栅的制作和组装工艺

格栅支持板是换热器中的主要部件,尤其是大尺寸的格栅支持板,以前国内没有先例,如何编制好它的制作工艺和程序,并且在实际过程中得到很好的执行,遇到问题及时调整处置,对它的加工、组装、和整体安装有着特别重要的作用。     

Towards sensible toxicity testing for nanomaterials: proposal for the specification of test design

During the last decade, nanomaterials (NM) were extensively tested for potential harmful effects towards humans and environmental organisms. However, a sound hazard assessment was so far hampered by uncertainties and a low comparability of test results. The reason for the low comparability is a high variation in the (1) type of NM tested with regard to raw material, size and shape and (2) procedures before and during the toxicity testing. This calls for tailored, nanomaterial-specific protocols. Here, a structured approach is proposed, intended to lead to test protocols not only tailored to specific types of nanomaterials, but also to respective test system for toxicity testing. There are existing standards on single procedures involving nanomaterials, however, not all relevant procedures are covered by standards. Hence, our approach offers a detailed way of weighting several plausible alternatives for e.g. sample preparation, in order to decide on the procedure most meaningful for a specific nanomaterial and toxicity test. A framework of several decision trees (DT) and flow charts to support testing of NM is proposed as a basis for further refinement and in-depth elaboration. DT and flow charts were drafted for (1) general procedure—physicochemical characterisation, (2) choice of test media, (3) decision on test scenario and application of NM to liquid media, (4) application of NM to the gas phase, (5) application of NM to soil and sediments, (6) dose metrics, (S1) definition of a nanomaterial, and (S2) dissolution. The applicability of the proposed approach was surveyed by using experimental data retrieved from studies on nanoscale CuO. This survey demonstrated the DT and flow charts to be a convenient tool to systematically decide upon test procedures and processes, and hence pose an important step towards harmonisation of NM testing.     

千米深井大断面硐室双强壳体支护成套技术的应用

从分析深井高应力大断面巷道和硐室破碎围岩的变形破坏特点入手,指出巷道稳定性的控制机理在于及时强化失稳区围岩的残余强度,阻止初次失稳的发展,并施加高强的主动支护结构,从而使巷道进入二次稳定状态,同时采取高强的被动封闭支护技术。提出了全断面双强壳体支护设计、3S耦合协调支护设计和抗张拉强基础梁支护设计等设计方案来控制巷道变形。并对绞车房进行现场施工,支护效果良好,达到预期目标。     

综采工作面端头超前支护方式实践

该文分析了加强综采工作面超前支护的必要性,对传统的综采工作面超前支护技术存在的不足进行了分析;就如何加强新型综采工作面超前支护技术的应用进行了探讨。     

Exploring design trade-offs for achieving social inclusion in multi-tiered design problems

ABSTRACT

The digital age of the future is ‘not out there to be discovered’, but it needs to be ‘designed’. The design challenge has to address questions about how we want to live, work, and learn (as individuals and as communities) and what we value and appreciate, e.g.: reflecting on quality of life and creating inclusive societies. An overriding design trade-off for the digital age is whether new developments will increase the digital divide or will create more inclusive societies. Sustaining inclusive societies means allowing people of all ages and all abilities to exploit information technologies for personally meaningful activities. Meta-design fosters the design of socio-technical environments that end-user developers can modify and evolve at use time to improve their quality of life and favour their inclusion in the society. This paper describes three case studies in the domain of assistive technologies in which end users themselves cannot act as end-user developers, but someone else (e.g.: a caregiver or a clinician) must accept this role requiring multi-tiered architectures. The design trade-offs and requirements for meta-design identified in the context of the case studies and other researchers’ projects are described to inform the development of future socio-technical environments focused on social inclusion.     

Does social capital reduce entrepreneurs' petty corruption? Evidence across Indonesian regions

Petty corruption is a barrier to entrepreneurship in emerging countries, justifying to investigate its determinants. Using data on 1,240 entrepreneurs across Indonesian regions, we analyse the effects of social capital. Two-evel ordered probit regressions show that weak-ties discourage entrepreneurs' bribing, strong-ties encourage it, whereas this latter effect is moderated by the quality of access to formal credit. Bribing banks or turning to relatives for external funding are alternative solutions for entrepreneurs facing poor access to formal credit, a common feature in emerging countries, and the second solution is preferred given the risk and psychological costs of corruption.     

Group decision support system for backbone-network reconfiguration

Modern power system is unprecedentedly vulnerable and the society is exposed to higher blackout risks. Therefore restoration is a key issue to power systems. Reasonable backbone-network reconfiguration is necessary for re-establishing the network and restoring loads quickly. In order to speed up network reconfiguration under security constraints, a group decision support system (GDSS) is developed. A unified data platform based on data warehouse is constructed to resolve inconsistencies of data, information and models. A three-stage restoration strategy and a two-layer restoration path searching method are proposed to establish restoration schemes. Multiple attribute decision-making is implemented to evaluate alternatives and consider various attributes about restoration speed and system security comprehensively. Group decision-making provides an aggregated cardinal ranking of candidate restoration schemes. The GDSS uses expert rules for qualitative analysis and numerical computation programs for quantitative analysis, and it can resolve the semi-structured decision problem of network reconfiguration efficiently. Restoration plan of Shandong power grid is developed with the proposed method and it has been adopted by State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company. Performance results of Shandong power grid of China demonstrate the feasibility and flexibility of the method.